The Lockout Basketball Can’t Afford

‘Unlikely’ is the word on the street as the WNBA and WNBPA wrestle over a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). It’s been a historic two years for the W. Rising stars like Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese, and Paige Bueckers have powered record ratings, sold-out arenas, and a surge of cultural attention.

The surge isn’t hype, the numbers back it:

On paper, the W looks unstoppable. In reality, its future hangs on a single deal.

Plus, when you zoom out, it’s actually women’s sports globally. It shattered records in 2024, pulling in $1.88 billion in revenue. In 2025, the global number is projected to hit $2.35 billion, with basketball identified as the biggest driver of that surge.

And yet, just as growth peaks, the two main components of this league find themselves at odds.

Why players opted out

The WNBPA opted out of the current CBA last October (two years early), seeking a deal that matches the league’s rise.

While there are many layers, at the center we have:

Especially ‌when we compare with other sports, the disparity is striking:

All this has led to spilling the frustration into the open. From meetings to All-Star weekend in Indiana, players turned frustration into protest: “Pay Us What You Owe Us” splashed across shirts. And we heard it loudest when the very first CBA proposal was dismissed as nothing less than “a slap in the face.”

Now it’s been nearly 60 days since negotiations began, but there’s still no real conclusion in sight. WNBPA executive director Terri Carmichael Jackson recently warned, “As we approach the 60-day mark, the league’s lack of urgency leaves players wondering if it is focused on making this work or just running out the clock.”

What’s next?

If no deal is reached by Oct. 31, 2025, the league risks more than a delay. They’d have to fall back on a short extension of the current CBA, just like in 2019. Or go on strike. Players have made it clear they’re willing to negotiate as long as necessary, but the possibility of a work stoppage is real.

If it happens, no party comes out winning, since it could:

Put the WNBA in direct conflict with its new Disney contract and sponsors who’ve just bought into the league’s rise.

Future hinges on this CBA?

More than anything, this timing couldn’t be more critical. This CBA isn’t just another round of paperwork; this will shape how women’s basketball is seen for years to come.

With a historic rookie class already reshaping the league, expansion franchises in Toronto and Portland (and many more cities placing bids) waiting on rules, the decisions made here will be important.

This isn’t just about contracts. It’s about whether women’s basketball cements itself as America’s next big league or stalls right as the spotlight turns its way.

And if we're still stuck on lockout talks, the WNBA must take a page from its male counterparts...

Lockouts aren’t new to basketball. The WNBA had a brief delay at the start of the 2003 season, but nothing of this scale has ever hit the league. The NBA, however, has faced it before.

The 2011 NBA lockout, the fourth and most recent in league history, began July 1, 2011, after the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expired, and lasted 161 days, ending December 8, 2011.

So what caused it? In a few simple words: same issues, different scales.

On the surface, the costs seemed limited:

But economically, the impact was far greater…

The cost of lockouts

Work stoppages always hit three areas hardest: revenue, income, and jobs.

The 2011 NBA lockout was no exception. The fallout was massive, and the numbers make it crystal clear.

Check this out 👇

The lockout wasn’t just about missed games. It rippled through paychecks, offices, and even living rooms. Need proof?

Read it out:

Alert, WNBA! Lessons from the NBA work stoppage

The work stoppage ended with a new CBA on November 26, featuring a 49-51.2% revenue split, a flexible salary cap, and a harsher luxury tax. Players were allowed voluntary workouts at team sites starting December 1, signaling a tentative end. However, it is evident that the outcome largely favored the owners.

For the NBA, the blow was absorbable. For the W, it could be existential.

Smaller-market teams already face tighter financial margins, and the league’s markets are far smaller than the NBA’s. The men’s league’s lockout cost over $1 billion in lost TV ad revenue. Imagine it for a league just hitting its stride and establishing fandom.

The lesson is unmistakable: the WNBA must take the NBA’s mistakes as a blueprint for action. Proactive negotiation isn’t optional; it’s essential to safeguard both the league’s explosive on-court growth and its long-term financial future.

The NBA lockout showed how quickly momentum can evaporate. For the W, the real question isn’t just if a deal gets done, it’s whether they can write a CBA that cements women’s basketball as a permanent force, not a passing surge.

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